Zhong Tang (Dalian) Materials Co., Ltd
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A, graphite electrode:
The cost of key consumables and raw materials for electric arc furnace steelmaking accounts for 66.88%, and ultra-high power is the development direction.
A graphite electrode is a graphite product obtained by calcining an amorphous carbon in a graphitization furnace. From the point of view of the production process, the graphite electrode uses petroleum coke, needle coke and coal pitch as main raw materials, and the raw material cost accounts for 51.83%. According to calculations in the text, a 1 ton ultra-high-power graphite electrode requires 1.02 tons of needle coke and 0.29 tons of coal tar pitch. If calculated according to the raw material prices on March 16, the cost price of ultra-high-power graphite electrodes has reached 39,797 yuan/ton; graphite electrodes Up to 11 production processes, production cycle of ordinary power graphite electrodes in more than 50 days, and ultra-high power graphite electrode production cycle of up to 65 days or more; from the development trend, ultra-high power electric arc furnace is the mainstream direction of development, electric arc Furnace power boost will drive the development of high-power and ultra-high-power graphite electrodes with diameters over 500mm. According to the statistical data of China Carbon Industry Association, the proportion of high-power and ultra-high-power graphite electrodes in China has increased year by year, accounting for 73% in 2016.
Second, demand side:
In 2017, the domestic and overseas apparent consumption of graphite electrodes increased by 3.06% and 10.56%, respectively. It is expected that the global compound annual growth rate of the graphite electrode will reach 4.88% from 2018 to 2020.
Graphite electrode is a key consumable for electric furnace steelmaking, and it is a consumable product. According to Gao Zhanyi et al.'s “Exploration of Graphite Electrode Consumption and Use in Electric Arc Furnace Melting in the Electric Arc Furnace Smelting” published in the 2009 issue of “Carbon Technology”, commonly used exchanges in iron and steel smelting The graphite electrode consumption of the three-phase electric arc furnace is 1.5~2.5 kg/t, with an average of 2.0 kg/t. According to one of the steelmaking process development path we published on March 6, 2018: Short Flow vs Long Flow - Environmental Protection and Economic Development Accelerated the Development of Short-term Processes and Upstream Raw Materials and Consumables Industry Chain or Benefits. In-depth report, in 2017, the capacity of EAFs under overseas construction was 36.672 million tons, and the newly-built EAF production capacity from 2018 to 2019 was 88.335 million tons. China has officially announced capacity replacement. The newly-built electric arc furnace design capacity is 31.18 million tons. It is estimated that from 2018 to 2020, the global demand for graphite electrodes will increase by 9.27, 14.19, and 49,200 tons, a total of 283,800 tons.
Third, the supply side:
In 2017, the utilization rate of overseas and domestic capacities was only 72% and 64%, respectively. The domestic production capacity of projects was 52,400 tons, and the average annual compound growth rate was 13.18%.
From an overseas perspective, according to the calculation in the text, in 2017, the production capacity of overseas graphite electrodes was 780,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 71.86%. According to the annual report of each company, in 2017, the production capacity of 7 overseas leading graphite electrode manufacturers was 726,000 tons, and the production capacity share was 93.08. %; Japan's Showa Denko (Showa) is the largest manufacturer of graphite electrodes for overseas production, with a capacity of 250,000 tons in 2017. Affected by the declining industry boom and falling profits, overseas graphite giants have cut output and consolidated many times since 2012. According to the Indian HEG Company's annual report, the production capacity of the seven overseas graphite electrode manufacturers has significantly decreased from 958,000 tons in 2012 to 24.22. % From 2017 to 726,000 tons; from a domestic perspective, according to statistics from the China Carbon Industry Association, the production capacity of graphite electrodes in China was 920,000 tons in 2017 and the output was 590,900 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was only 64.23%; since 2017, The official website of the people’s governments of all parts of the country has publicly announced that the total production capacity of graphite electrode projects put into production, under construction, and planned to be built will be at least 524,000 tons, and the domestic average annual compound growth rate will be 13.18%.
Fourth, supply and demand balance:
It is expected that the global supply and demand of graphite electrodes will be basically balanced in 2018, and graphite electrodes or supply will exceed supply in 2019 and 2020
According to the estimation in the article, if the new production capacity can reach full capacity, the gap between supply and demand will be 10,000 tons in 2018. Taking into account the existing production capacity or increasing the capacity utilization rate, the production gap can be filled to fill the gap between supply and demand. In 2018, the global graphite electrode is in supply and demand. In the state of tight balance; after 2019, with the completion of the domestic new graphite electrode project, the global supply of graphite electrodes began to exceed the total demand, that is, the global graphite electrode market in 2019 or 2020 was in a state of oversupply.
Long process flow replaces short flow flow into rational choice, graphite electrodes will not become short-flowing development barriers until 2020
Through analysis, we believe that the policy encourages short-term processes, the normalization of environmental protection production limits, and ultra-clean emission increase the cost of environmental protection. The long process will replace the short process into a rational choice. The development of short-process steelmaking will drive graphite electrodes, especially ultra-high-power graphite electrodes. Demand; Under the stimulation of high prices and high earnings, the domestic domestic graphite electrode project under construction has a total production capacity of 524,000 tons. In 2018, the supply and demand of graphite electrodes are basically balanced. In 2019 and 2020, there will be oversupply, so 2018-2020. Years of graphite electrodes will not be a limiting factor for the development of short processes.
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